Delinquency Rates Rise as Financing Firms Face Uncertainty

Mary Beth Fisher, a senior fixed income strategist at Santander, has observed a concerning trend of increasing delinquency rates. This shift in collateral performance is particularly evident in Commercial Real Estate Collateralized Loan Obligations (CRE CLOs), where stress and delinquency rates spiked dramatically in the final months of 2023. Fisher predicts that this trend will persist throughout the first half of 2024.

Meanwhile, Arbor Realty Trust, a lender specializing in apartment building financing, finds itself facing unexpected challenges due to the tightening of monetary policy. The financing firm primarily offers bridge loans with floating interest rates, leaving them vulnerable to potential defaults. This has raised concerns among investors, especially with regards to Arbor’s reliance on collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), which accounted for a significant portion of its capital last year, amounting to approximately $7.3 billion. As a result, Arbor’s financial stability has come under close scrutiny, particularly from short sellers. A report by Viceroy Research has claimed that the lender is burdened by distressed loans, further exacerbating the concerns surrounding the company’s resilience in these turbulent times.

In response to these allegations, Arbor Realty’s Chief Financial Officer, Paul Elenio, emphasized the firm’s consistency and transparency in their messaging over the past few quarters. Elenio expressed confidence in the company’s public statements and market guidance and reassured investors that Arbor Realty will provide updates on their year-end earnings release.

The rise in delinquency rates and the uncertainties faced by financing firms such as Arbor Realty highlight the challenges present in the current market landscape. As the industry navigates through these turbulent times, it is crucial for financial institutions to maintain transparency and address concerns to uphold investor confidence.

メリー・ベス・フィッシャーは、Santanderのシニア固定収入ストラテジストであり、遅延率の増加という懸念すべき傾向を観察しています。この担保のパフォーマンスの変化は特に商業不動産担保ローン債務(CRE CLOs)で顕著であり、2023年の最終月にストレスと遅延率が急激に上昇しました。フィッシャーは、この傾向が2024年上半期にわたって持続すると予測しています。

一方、アパート建築の融資に特化した貸付業者であるアーバーリアルティトラストは、金融政策の引き締めによる予想外の課題に直面しています。この融資会社は主に変動金利のブリッジローンを提供しており、デフォルトの可能性に対して脆弱な状況です。これは投資家の間で懸念を引き起こしました、特に昨年の同社の資本の大部分を占めた担保ローン債務(CLOs)に関しては、およそ73億ドルに相当します。そのため、アーバーリアルティトラストの財務の安定性は売り建玉を中心に厳密に検証されています。Viceroy Researchによるレポートは、この貸付業者が困難なローンに悩まされていると主張し、その結果、この混沌とした時期における同社の持ちこたえに対する懸念が高まっています。