The Impact of Remote Work on Commercial Real Estate

Due to the increasing trend of remote work and the challenges faced by the commercial real estate sector, there are concerns about the potential default wave that could affect banks. The industry has been struggling with losses on commercial real estate (CRE) loan books since early 2023. The combination of financing difficulties caused by high interest rates and lower office occupancy rates has put significant pressure on the sector.

Investors are worried about the weak demand for office spaces, which could lead to defaults and create a burden for banks and other lenders. In order to mitigate the risks, several prominent U.S. regional banks have taken measures to strengthen their funds. Wells Fargo, among others, has been building up rainy-day funds over the past year.

Smaller lenders, on the other hand, have been trying to reduce risk by increasing their loan loss provisions and selling CRE portfolios to private equity firms. This strategy is aimed at minimizing potential losses and ensuring financial stability.

While the CRE worries extend across the banking sector, it is interesting to note the diverse commercial real estate exposure of different banks. Data as of the third quarter of 2023 shows that each bank has a unique concentration ratio of CRE construction. For example, New York Community Bancorp’s subsidiary, Flagstar Bank, has a concentration ratio of 477%, whereas Independent Bank Corp has a concentration ratio of 302%.

These figures highlight the varying degrees of risk exposure among regional banks. The impact of remote work on the banking sector and commercial real estate remains a significant concern. However, as lenders adapt to changing market conditions and implement strategies to mitigate risks, they are positioning themselves for stability in the face of evolving work dynamics.

Source: Real estate data provider Trepp, using a combination of bank SEC filings and call sheets.




商業不動産の懸念は銀行業界全体に広がっていますが、異なる銀行の商業不動産への露出度合いには多様性があります。2023年第3四半期のデータによると、各銀行の商業不動産建設への独自の集中率が示されています。例えば、New York Community Bancorpの子会社であるFlagstar Bankの集中率は477%であり、一方Independent Bank Corpは302%の集中率です。


1. デフォルト波(default wave): 貸借発生において、多くの債務者が債務不履行に陥る現象。
2. 資金調達(financing difficulties): 資金を調達することの困難さ。
3. 占有率(occupancy rates): 物件の占有状況を示す割合。
4. ローンロス引当金(loan loss provisions): 当行のローンポートフォリオにおいて未回収貸倒リスクの発生に備えて経済的な措置を講じるための資金。