Forced Selling: Five Situations That Could Drive Sales in 2024

2024 is expected to see a shift in the real estate market, with a rise in forced selling rather than motivated selling driven by high prices and cheap money. Let’s explore five scenarios that could result in forced selling.

1. Transition Due to Divorce, Death, or Dissolution
Life transitions such as divorce, death, or business dissolution often lead to the need to sell a property. In the case of divorce, assets need to be reconciled, which may result in a sale. Death can trigger the attractive tax treatment of a “step-up in basis,” making selling more appealing. Business owners may decide to sell their companies, leading to the sale of the property they once occupied.

2. Lender Pressure
Regional banks facing stress, risky loans, or upward rate pressure on their bond portfolios may be at risk. If a bank-funded construction loan was made in early 2022 based on certain assumptions, such as lease rates and occupancy time, a different market reality could jeopardize loan repayment. Softened lease rates, extended vacancy times, and higher interest rates may force banks to demand a sale to mitigate potential losses.

3. Owner Capitulation
With refinancing into a higher interest rate market, some property owners, especially those with office properties, may consider selling. Substantial vacancies and the need to lower lease rates to attract tenants can significantly impact expected income. Additionally, if capital expenditures are required to attract occupants, it may strain the owner’s budget. In such cases, owners may hand the keys to their lender, who will then sell the property at a discounted price.

4. Short-Term Rollover
Building owners faced with pending vacancies may opt to sell rather than undergo the lengthy and costly process of finding new tenants. This trend is observed among owners who were unable to compete with investor activity in the past. Some chose to sell but leased the property back for a short term. Now, as vacancies loom, they prefer to sell and avoid the uncertainty of finding new occupants.

5. Investors Awakening
Investors, faced with changing market conditions, allocation requirements, and lower lease rates, may become more active in the market, leading to increased buying activity. Non-pressured property owners may also be enticed by unsolicited investor offers, resulting in unexpected sales.

In conclusion, 2024 is anticipated to bring about a shift towards forced selling in the real estate market. Various factors such as life transitions, lender pressure, owner capitulation, short-term rollovers, and investor activity are expected to contribute to this trend.


1. 離婚、死亡、または解散による過渡期

2. 金融機関の圧力

3. オーナーの屈服

4. 短期ロールオーバー

5. 投資家の目覚め



– 強制売却(forced selling):物件所有者が自発的な売却ではなく、外部の要因によって物件を売らざるを得ない状況。
– リース料金(lease rates):物件を賃貸する際に支払われる家賃の金額。
– 空室率(vacancy times):物件の空き状態であり、入居者がいない期間。
– 資本支出(capital expenditures):物件の状態や設備を改善するために行われる支出。
– 相続財産の取得後のベースアップ(step-up in basis):相続財産の評価額が死亡時の市場価格よりも高くなることで、相続時の税額を軽減する制度。